TL;DR
AMD’s silence on AI chip revenue is a chilling echo of past market crashes. Will investors heed the warning, or get caught in the fallout?
Story
AMD, once a beacon of hope in the AI chip race, has gone dark. They’ve stopped forecasting AI revenue—a move echoing the quiet before past market storms. Remember 2008? Or Enron’s whispers before the implosion? History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
Here’s the unsettling tune: AMD admits they can’t predict the future of their AI chip sales. Why? Competition, primarily from Nvidia. While AMD’s new chips (MI300 series) might be decent, they’re late to the party. Like showing up to a gold rush after the nuggets are gone.‣ Gold rush analogy: First movers often win; latecomers scramble for scraps.
Their CEO talks about “tens of billions” in future sales, but where are the concrete numbers? It’s like promising a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow you can’t even see.‣ Rainbow analogy: Vague promises lack substance.
Meanwhile, analysts are whispering doubts. They’re worried AMD is trapped—unable to give a good forecast, but penalized for staying silent. This uncertainty fuels fear, and fear breeds panic in the market. Just like the whispers before a bank run.‣ Bank run analogy: Loss of confidence triggers mass withdrawals, causing collapse.
So, what happens to the average investor? They’re left holding the bag—wondering if their AMD bet will turn into a bust. Like hoping your lottery ticket will win when the numbers are already drawn.‣ Lottery analogy: Investments without solid fundamentals are gambles.
Is this the beginning of the end for AMD’s AI ambitions? It’s too early to say for sure, but the warning bells are ringing. And if history teaches us anything, it’s to listen when the alarm goes off.
Advice
Don’t blindly follow hype. Scrutinize forecasts. If a company can’t predict its own future, how can you trust your money with them?