TL;DR
A kid’s Bitcoin predictions from 2011 highlight the seductive nature of hype and the dangers of FOMO. While some predictions were directionally correct, the real lesson is in the irrational exuberance surrounding speculative markets.
Story
A 12-year-old explaining Bitcoin in 2011? Cute. Almost 14 years later, it’s less cute and more a reminder of how easily hype can blind us. Back then, Bitcoin was $8. Now? It’s a rollercoaster. This kid’s predictions? Some hits, mostly misses. Like predicting the internet’s impact—you know it’s big, but how is anyone’s guess.
What did he get right? Bitcoin’s potential to change finance. What did he miss? Pretty much everything else. Timing, adoption, the sheer weirdness of crypto’s evolution. It’s like predicting the Model T would lead to self-driving cars—directionally right, but the details are messy.
This isn’t about Bitcoin’s future. It’s about how easy it is to get swept up in narratives. Remember the dot-com bubble? Same energy. People throwing money at anything with a “.com,” just like they did with “.crypto” a few years back. ‣ Dot-com Bubble: A period in the late 1990s when internet company stocks soared before crashing spectacularly.
The kid’s later comment about pawning everything for Bitcoin? Darkly funny now. It highlights the FOMO—fear of missing out—that drives these markets. People make irrational decisions fueled by emotion, not logic. Just like in 2008, when people took out mortgages they couldn’t afford because everyone else was doing it. ‣ 2008 Financial Crisis: Triggered by a housing market crash, this crisis led to a global recession.
Nostalgia is a powerful drug. Looking back at $8 Bitcoin is easy. Actually buying it? A different story. Hindsight is 20/20, but foresight? Well, let’s just say it’s blurry at best.
Advice
Don’t chase past gains. Focus on understanding the underlying value, not just the price tag. If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.