TL;DR
The ‘it’s priced in’ meme, popular among traders, is a dangerous delusion. It ignores the unpredictable nature of markets and the real human cost of financial crises.
Story
The Market’s Dark Joke: ‘It’s Priced In’
John, a retiree, thought he was playing it safe. He’d heard whispers of ‘market efficiency,’ the idea that all information—even a missile strike—is magically reflected in stock prices. This was his new mantra: ‘It’s priced in.’
But John’s faith was a house of cards. The ‘priced in’ meme, a dark joke among cynical traders, is a dangerous delusion. It suggests markets are all-knowing oracles, perfectly discounting every eventuality. This ignores human greed, fear, and the very real impact of unpredictable shocks.
Think of Enron: analysts claimed its risky practices were already ‘priced in.’ They weren’t. The result? Financial ruin for thousands. The 2008 crash? Similar story. ‘Subprime risks were already priced in,’ the experts chirped, until the whole system collapsed.
The ‘priced in’ delusion empowers reckless behavior. If everything is baked into the price, then why not gamble recklessly? Why worry about due diligence? This thinking breeds a culture of negligence, exactly what the fraudsters thrive on. Remember, markets can be irrational; they are driven by human psychology, not flawless algorithms. Those who claim to see the future are often selling a dream—or a lie.
John’s story is a cautionary tale. He isn’t alone. Countless investors have lost their shirts believing in the ‘it’s priced in’ myth. What were the red flags? The arrogance of the assertion itself! The sheer impossibility of such a claim should have raised immediate alarms.
Lesson: No one, not even the most sophisticated AI, can predict the market with perfect accuracy. Due diligence, diversification, risk assessment—these are your weapons, not blind faith in an all-knowing market.
Conclusion: The ‘priced in’ meme is a siren song of delusion, luring the naive into reckless investment decisions. Remember Enron, remember 2008—learn from the past, before your retirement savings become another statistic in the history of financial folly.
Advice
Never trust any investment promising guaranteed returns. Do your homework, and remember that market predictions are rarely reliable.