TL;DR

The “tariffs were priced in” narrative is a dangerous oversimplification that ignores the unpredictable nature of markets and complex global events. This misplaced confidence can lead to devastating financial losses, echoing past market crashes.

Story

The idea that “tariffs were priced in” is a dangerous myth. It’s like saying the Titanic’s sinking was “priced in” after it hit the iceberg—sure, some damage might’ve been expected, but not the total disaster.

This case highlights the market’s blind faith in predictions. People latch onto phrases like “priced in” as if they offer magical protection. It’s reminiscent of the 2008 crisis, where complex derivatives were deemed “safe” until they weren’t.

What does “priced in” even mean? It suggests current prices reflect all known information, including future events. But no one can perfectly predict the ripple effects of something as complex as tariffs.

‣ Tariffs: Taxes on imported goods, often used in trade wars.

The “unexpected news” idea is equally flawed. Markets are always reacting to unexpected news—that’s their nature! This doesn’t justify risky bets on unpredictable policy shifts. Remember the dot-com bubble? “New economy” hype didn’t prevent the crash.

The linked images and phrases like “buy calls tomorrow” reek of speculative frenzy. It’s gambling, not investing. The human cost? People lose their savings chasing phantom profits.

Like Icarus flying too close to the sun, market hubris always ends badly. Be warned.

Advice

Don’t blindly trust market predictions, especially about complex issues like tariffs. Diversify your investments, and don’t bet the farm on any single event.

Source

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1jq40rn/tariffs_were_priced_in/