TL;DR

Goldman Sachs’ 35% recession prediction is a wake-up call, echoing past economic crises and hinting at the devastating impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs on everyday Americans. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes—and this rhyme sounds a lot like a recession.

Story

Trump’s tariff threats are like lighting a match near a gas leak—the potential for a recessionary explosion is real. Goldman Sachs putting the odds at 35% is a blaring siren, but history tells us it could be worse.

‣ Recession: When the economy shrinks for two quarters in a row, leading to job losses and market downturns.

This isn’t just about numbers; it’s about people. Imagine John, who’s nearing retirement, watching his savings evaporate as the market tanks. Or Maria, a single mom, losing her job because her company can’t afford the increased costs from tariffs.

‣ Tariff: A tax on imported goods, often used to protect domestic industries but can lead to higher prices.

This situation echoes past crises. Think of the 2008 housing bubble or the Enron scandal—complex systems built on shaky foundations. Trump’s tariffs, coupled with rising inflation and slowing growth, create a similar house of cards, vulnerable to even the slightest breeze.

‣ Inflation: A general increase in prices, making your money worth less over time.

The mechanics are simple: Tariffs make imported goods more expensive, pushing up prices for everyone. Businesses cut back, people lose jobs, spending decreases, and the economy spirals downward. It’s a vicious cycle.

Looking back at previous Republican presidencies since Reagan, each has coincided with a recession. This pattern suggests a worrying trend. While not directly causal, the correlation raises concerns.

If this sounds pessimistic, it’s because I’ve seen this story play out before. The signs are there, and ignoring them won’t make them disappear. The key takeaway? Be prepared. Diversify your investments, have an emergency fund, and stay informed. Hope for the best, but expect the worst—that’s the only way to navigate these turbulent times.

Advice

Don’t wait for the recession to hit before you act. Diversify investments, build an emergency fund—because history tells us optimism alone won’t pay the bills.

Source

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jnu36t/goldman_sachs_hikes_probability_of_us_recession/